Sunday 29 May 2022

Can You Trust the Propagation Forecast??...

Over the past two months I, and others, have noticed two things with propagation.  The first thing is that when the forecasted numbers are bad, we're still making good contacts.  The second thing is when the forecasted numbers are good, there's no contacts to be seen.....anywhere.

Today was a good example.  The forecasted propagation. numbers were:  SFI=102, SN=34, A Index=24, and the K Index=3.  It certainly didn't look very good, as an example the SN was at 110 a few days ago.  Today we also had some extremely deep QSB, which made making contacts, and hearing contacts, much harder.

This morning I went to Lemoine Point Conservation Area, VE-5141, for a quick POTA activation. I decided to use my Packtenna 20m EFHW antenna today, instead of my Hamsticks.

The picture to the left shows the 20m EFHW antenna with the 40m extension, and the home-brewed centre piece to hold it on the mast.

Using an analyzer Don, VE3MNE, and I ran the numbers on the End-Fed.  Just configured as the 20m antenna, and without the extension to take it down to 40m.  

The numbers where:  14.040 it was 1.9:1 and at 14.340 it was 1.8:1.   While it is usable, it wasn't so good on 10m, 28.040 was 2.5:1 and at 28.450 it was 2.4:1.  

It worked very well for me on 20m.  I went QRT with 13 contacts in the log after 20 minutes.  This little antenna will definitely get some more use this summer.

Here's todays activation map:

As for the propagation numbers?  Yeah, I think I will continue to note them, but ignore them...maybe I'll make more contacts that way!

Stay safe out there!

3 comments:

  1. I have the same experience. Forecasting propagation is almost the same as forecasting the weather. It is just not 100% shure, just an indication. I don't care about forecasts and get on air myself to check the bands. Have fun. 73, Bas

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  2. Thanks for the visit Bas. Glad to read your thoughts on propagation are the same as mine. 73, Bill VE3FI

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  3. Yup as Bas said it's for me is just one of the tools I use BUT I too have been surprised when I compare a poor propagation forecast but make excellent contacts.
    73,
    Mike
    VE9KK

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